The Singularity is near now?

Kevin Drum over at the Washington Monthly has a nice extrapolation based on Ray Kurzweil’s new book (see his chart for added effect):

With that said, however, it turns out that I do have a bone to pick with Kurzweil over one of the trend charts that litter his book. Basically, he argues that the pace of change has been accelerating over time, so that major inventions are being created ever faster as time goes by. 10,000 years ago it took several thousand years between major inventions (agriculture –> wheel), while a century ago it took only a few decades (telephone –> radio).

Fine. But his cleverly constructed chart cheats: it stops about 30 years ago. So I decided to extend it. My version of his chart extends to last month (see pink shaded area), and it indicates that major, paradigm-busting inventions should be spaced about a week apart these days.

So what gives? Seems to me that the Singularity should be right on our doorstep, not 40 years away. And while 40 years may not seem like all that much in the great scheme of things, it means a lot if you’re 46 years old. Which I am.

So what happened?

If I had to guess without having read the book yet, I’d say what the chart really shows is the gloss of history: the longer ago something was, the less important we take it to be and the more we lump it together with everything else from that period. For example, the last four entries on Ray’s chart are the Industrial Revolution, the Telephone, electricity, and radio (as one event), the computer and the personal computer (as two events). Why did he decide to label these as four paradigm-busting inventions rather than seven, or as one? Contrarily, why are writing and the wheel lumped into the same invention, or printing and the experimental method? Depending on what you call a single “event” the spacing between those events could show accelerating change, constant change, or stability punctuated by short periods of rapid change (the last one being my own personal belief).

Could the one true constant be the belief that our generation is experiencing more change than any other?

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Rain falls, film at 11.

I love living in a place where a little rain makes front-page news:

Moisture and unstable air spinning off a tropical storm along the coast of Mexico brought a rare burst of thunder, lightning and rain — even some hail and power outages — to the Bay Area on Tuesday afternoon.

From 1 p.m. to about 3 p.m., thunder boomed as the brunt of the storm passed over San Jose, Fremont, Palo Alto and San Francisco, while sporadic rainfall wet roadways and cooled down the region.

It was the first rain since June 17, when 0.03 inches fell in San Jose. And the storm marked the first recorded rainfall on Sept. 20 in San Jose at least back to 1948, according to National Weather Service records.

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Wikipedia the (physical) World

Semapedia is a project to annotate physical locations with 2D barcodes that link to Wikipedia articles. With the Semacode software running on your PDA/cellphone, you scan a barcode and it’ll take you to the linked-to article. There’ve been a lot of attempts at this sort of physical annotation of the world, WorldBoard being one of the earlier ones I remember.

semapedia-bug.gif

I like the concept in theory, but I’m always disappointed by the quality and variability of the links. Do I really want a link about privacy just because I see a no-tresspassing sign, or about the Hofburg Imperial Palace just because I’m standing there? Perhaps, if I’m in the mood for ironic social commentary or I’m a tourist with an interest in architecture, but most people won’t be the right audience for any given link. One man’s art is another man’s graffiti, and the world-annotation systems I’ve seen are currently little more than virtual spray paint.

The variability is the real key. If 90% of the tags I come across link to something interesting to me, I’ll probably follow every one I see. If only 50% link to something interesting, I might look at the human-readable title printed on the tag and then decide whether I think it likely that the article will be well-written and interest me. If 90% of the tags wind up being useless, I won’t even bother reading the title — and then it won’t matter that there are 10% that I would have enjoyed if I had bothered to look.

I’m not totally pessimistic about this sort of technology though. With the right combination of filtering (to make tags I don’t care about completely invisible), subtlety (to make the tags I might care about still be unobtrusive in case I don’t want to be bothered) and community support (to insure relevance to me and to bond me to my community regardless of the link quality), I could see something like this finally taking off.

(Thanks to Eugen Leitl on the Wearables mailing list for the link!)

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Bay Area event: two Ray Kurzweil talks

Ray Kurzweil will be speaking about his new book, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, at two events in the San Francisco Bay Area next week:

  • Thursday, Sept. 22nd at the SDForum at SAP in Palo Alto Registration at 6pm, lecture 7-8:30, $25 for non-members, $35 at the door)

  • Friday, Sept. 23rd at the Long Now Seminar at the Herbst Theater in San Francisco. Doors open at 7, lecture at 7:30 with $10 suggested (but not required) donation.

(JD Lasica has a review of Ray’s book over at New Media Musings.)

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Fat Pings and Atom Streams

There’s interesting work going on between Brad Fitzpatrick at LiveJournal, Bob Wyman of PubSub and other folks at SixApart (who make the MoveableType blogging software) about making continuous streams of blogging content so large aggregators (like PubSub, Technorati or Google) can get continuous updates from large sources of blog posts like LiveJournal, SixApart or Blogger.

See Brad’s post on LJ for the inital proposal, these threads on integrating it with the Atom protocol and the Six Apart Update Stream for developments.

Or, if you feel like playing yourself, type this into a command prompt to see a continuous stream of “No one understands me. Should I dye my hair pink or blue?”:

telnet updates.sixapart.com 8081
GET /atom-stream.xml HTTP/1.0 

(Extra points for being the first one to plug it into a screensaver 🙂

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Google blog search

I’ve been wondering when Google would get around to this. A few days ago they announced Google Blog Search, which indexes blog entries based on RSS or Atom feeds.

Google’s playing catch-up to smaller services like Technorati, but seem to have scooped Yahoo! and MSN, both of whom have been rumored to be coming out with an RSS-feed search “any day now” for months (Yahoo! even briefly revealed a test page before they realized it wasn’t being firewalled properly).

One feature Google gets right is that every page includes a link to subscribe to an RSS or Atom feed on that query, essentially turning any search phrase into an aggregator. Technorati has something similar with their watchlists, but you have to create an account and go through their page to create a new standing query. Google just creates the contents on the fly &mash; a big win in terms of ease-of-use since you’re likely to most want a standing query after you’ve just done the search as a regular one.

(Discovered via Political Animal, of all places, but there are also announcements at SixApart and John Battelle’s Searchblog.)

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Books on modern physics for the layman

I’ve always been fascinated by modern physics, but too often explanations in physics books either (a) give simplified explanations that don’t hold up under closer scrutiny, or (b) use so much specialized vocabulary and mathematics that they might as well be in Greek. The following four books are the ones I’ve found to be well-written exceptions:

  • The Einstein Paradox, and other science mysteries solved by Sherlock Holmes, by Colin Bruce, Perseus Books, 1997. Bruce presents 12 new short stories staring Sherlock Holmes as he solves cases that loosely follow the progress of physics through the last century, from a case of a mysterious sniper on a train (explaining Einstein’s Relativity) to one of the best descriptions of the EPR paradox I’ve seen in a case involving gambling fraud.

  • QED: The Strange Thory of Light and Matter, by Richard Feynman, Princeton University Press, 1985. Feynman was a brilliant teacher as well as physicist, and here he beautifully explains quantum electrodynamics, the theory that won him a Nobel prize. Based on a series of lectures he gave at UCLA that were designed specifically for a nontechnical audience.

  • In Search of Schroginger’s Cat and the sequel Schrodinger’s Kittens and the Search for Reality: Solving the Quantum Mysteries, both by John Gribbin (1984 and 1995). While I didn’t get quite as much understanding out of these books as I did from the first two I listed (there was a bit too much hand-waving for my taste), they still lay a good foundation and cover a wide field of the bizarreness that is quantum physics.

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Boobs for Bourbon Street!

One of the folks helping to raise money for the Katrina relief effort is the site Boobs 4 Bourbon Street (it’s been slashdotted and is down right now, but check back later). People are donating pictures of their bare breasts (with the website shown in the photo itself, to insure they were taken with full knowledge and consent of how they’d be used), and anyone who donates $5 or more to one of the main relief charities gets an account and password to view them.

From the site:

Click on any of the charities in the right-hand column, go to their donation page, and make an online donation for $5 or more. (Please note: Habitat For Humanity’s minimum online donation amount is $10. If you try to make a smaller donation in their form, you’ll get a fairly nondescript error message.) Then, once they send you a confirmation email, forward it to us, at verify@boobs4bourbonst.com. At this point, one of our volunteers will see your email, then create an account with which you can access the gallery, and email you with your login information. The username will be the email address that you emailed us from. The password will be randomly-generated. Write it down or print it out or save the email.

To quote my friend Adam, this has got to be the least efficient way to use the Internet to get pictures of boobs since Archie, but hey — it’s for charity, and when I checked a couple days ago they’d already raised $3000.

I also note (so you won’t think this post is entirely about boobs) that they’ve got an interesting trade economy going here, where they’re providing a service (in this case light-porn) not for cash but for proof that cash was paid to someone else. It’d be great to build up the infrastructure to make this kind of thing easier, much as Software Ransom sites have done for pooling commissions for software (are you listening, PayPal?).

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Beyond Satire

I’ve just come across a new blog called Beyond Satire (beyondsatire.us):

For years, we’ve been observing that truth has moved beyond satire. We created this site to highlight news that would be unbelievable as satire but is nevertheless true. Please help us by submitting comments and stories.

I can tell from the first dozen or so posts that this is going on my short list. (It reminds me of the “No Comment” feature that Ms. Magazine runs — things that are so over the top they supply their own punchline.)

As a side note, it took me two-thirds of the way through reading it till I realized the author is Ellen Spertus, a CS professor in San Francisco that I know from back when she was at the MIT AI Lab. Small world syndrome strikes again…

(Thanks to Andrea for the link!)

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